Cheese Please

U.S. canna wants to put America first.

Daily Recap

In 2025, the U.S. cannabis industry is projected to contribute $124B to the economy, with $35B coming from retail sales and the remaining $88B representing additional economic activity such as supply chain operations and job creation. By 2031, that number is forecasted to climb to $242B, including $69B in retail sales.

Each year shows steady growth, with the total impact increasing to $137B in 2026, $154B in 2027, and reaching $194B by 2029. The data indicates that retail sales are projected to grow in tandem, rising from $35B in 2025 to over $62B by 2030 before hitting $69B the following year.

Chatter Box

GOP staffers, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the president has reached out to members of Congress this week in a renewed push to pass the SAFER Banking Act—or similar legislation—through Congress before next November.

While cannabis banking has yet to be filed this session, it’s expected to happen soon, with the co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Cannabis Caucus saying recently that it’s one of the group’s top priorities. The forthcoming legislation was also signaled by Rep. Dave Joyce’s office earlier this year.

Gunning for Change

The government’s top lawyer is asking the Supreme Court for more time to consider whether to challenge a February appeals court ruling concerning federal prohibition on gun ownership by people who consume cannabis. It’s the latest development in a series of recent cases around the constitutionality of the firearm restriction.

The federal government currently has until May 6 to decide whether to file a writ of certiorari asking the Supreme Court to review the appeals court ruling.

Hero’s Welcome 🫡

A new study by NIDA examined county-level data about medical cannabis patients and clinicians in seven U.S. states, focusing mostly on demographic trends.

One finding suggests a strong association between military veteran populations and higher rates of medical marijuana authorizing clinicians, which “may reflect veteran efforts to expand medical canna access and more qualifying conditions for veterans.”

Another twist—it’s been reported that many if not most veterans are reticent to tap into the regulated medical cannabis market for fear of losing their gun license. This has has dogged vets for years and as discussed above, that issue is currently making its way through the federal court system.

Stocks & Stuff

It was a Green Day on Wall Street as the tariff tussle plays ping-pong with global asset classes and big tech gives their first quarter book reports. Canna stocks were higher too as talk turned to promises made becoming promises kept.

U.S. cannabis ETF MSOS added 18%, recapturing it’s 50-day moving average for the first time since the election, although it’s still -26% YTD and -59% since the election.

Below, we’ll top-line today’s move, contextualize conversations surrounding federal reform, check on the still-seething sentiment, review leverage ratios, highlight some relative 💪, offer random thoughts, and sniff at even more efficacious agility.

All that and more, just scroll down.

note: there will (likely) be no Cannabis Confidential tomorrow. Enjoy the weekend.

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑ ETF Notional: $55M

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