Green Thumb Earnings + Call Notes
U.S. cannabis leader reports Q226.
$306.7M Revs; est. $299.1M
$84.3M AEBITDA; est. $77.4M
$137.9M GP; est. $141M
45% GM; est. 47.1%
$20M OI; est. $36.8M
$4.9M NI; est. $5.9M
$0.02 EPS; est. $0.03
$29m CFFO
Repurchased 7.9m shares for $48.3m
Management Commentary
“The Green Thumb team continues to drive topline growth despite persistent pricing pressure in many of our key markets. 2H26 revenue was $307 million, a 5% gain year-over-year. Normalized EBITDA was $84 million, and our second quarter cash flow from operations was $29 million. We also bought back the equivalent of 7.9 million Subordinate Voting Shares at an average price of $6.11 per share throughout the quarter,”
There is real momentum in the business, and we are building on it with a disciplined approach and a solid balance sheet. Consumers continue to choose cannabis, and our decisions follow the consumer.
Material developments are underway in Virginia and Texas, two states that together account for roughly 12% of the U.S. population. Virginia is one of the largest states yet to open recreational retail, with adult-use sales launching July 1, 20272, while our conditional license under Texas’ Compassionate Use Program positions us to serve patients as access expands.
Hemp policy is also turning in favor of the regulated market, with Ohio an early example as most intoxicating hemp products are removed from retail and consumers move into the licensed cannabis channel.
We are optimistic that this transition will carve out a lasting place for THC beverages in the mainstream market. This environment favors operators with scale, brands, and shelf space already in place, and Green Thumb is well positioned to take advantage of it.”
Green Thumb Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ben Kovler.
Call Notes
12 years into Green Thumb’s history
DEA rescheduling hearing is wrapped, expect decision later this year
Registered some licensed operations w/ DEA, inspections have begun
Preparing to uplist to a US exchange, as allowed
^ Anticipate listing in full, open dialogue w/ both major exchanges
Regulation changes in VA TX
$307m revs, up 5% YoY
$84m Adj EBITDA
$29m CFFO
Ongoing price compression and competition
$284m cash, over $1/share
Positive developments in VA TX cause excitement for future growth\
^ 12% of the country’s population, combined
Tuck in deals available, steadily expanding footprint
Hemp policies expected, but you never know
OH regulated market grew over 10% post-hemp ban
Consumers moving into regulated market as hemp ban takes hold
Hemp ban favors operators w/ scale, brand, shelf space already in place
THC beverages a distinct category.
Regulators and industry participants seeing the same thing
Big believers in the category
Could consolidate RYM as soon as Oct 10 ‘26
Significant value not reflecting in the market
Repurchasing shares at these levels, 7.9m shares this quarter this quarter at average of $6.11/share, $48.3m total
Repurchased approx. 29.5m shares, 13% of shares outstanding
Retail revenue up 4% YoY, contributions from MN CT FL
SSS down 1% YoY
Pricing compression remains a headwind, particularly in MA NJ PA
Gross revenue up 4% YoY, led by MN OH NJ NY
OH MD MN #1 position in each state
PA VA FL retail door build outs
Actively evaluating VA investment strategy
$80m FY’26 CAPEX guidance
VA A/U legislation takes effect July ’27, 1 of 5 medical operators in the state
VA license remains close to KY TN, where cannabis access remains limited
TX GDP of $3 Trillion, 8th largest global economy
^ long-term upside is significant if state expands program
Transitioned Paramus NJ dispensary to A/U sales.
^ multi-year effortOpened Rise Hanover in PA
Now more than 120 retail doors
Made deliberate investments in team this quarter.
^pressured near-term EBITDA marginsExpect Q3 revs to be flat QoQ
Increase in expenses driven by compensation and increased costs associated with new retail doors
SG&A excl D&A, SBC, and 1-time - $87m vs. $84m in YoY period
$84.3m adj EBITDA, 27.5% Adj EBITDA margin
$4.9m gaap N/I, $0.02 EPS
Pricing pressures continue.
Some signs of easing in select market.
Pricing pressure continuing to weigh on top line
First full quarter with fixed fee licensing structure ($RYM)
VA A/U licensing step hasn’t taken place
Began assessing VA capacity expansion 18 months ago.
^ did buildout in anticipation of that.Assessing if have enough VA capacity
Expect some supply constraint in VA out of the gate.
^ depends on how hemp shakes out / how much capacity other operators have
Moving up to DEA compliance should open up a wide world of investors
8 retail doors acquired during the quarter
Consistent approach on M&A over the years.
Trying to generate strong returns on invested capital
Would rather find a great M&A deal than buy a lot of stock, as it provides growth
Seeing beverages sold in places outside of the dispensary channel
^ Large share of liquor/C-stores shifting sales to THC
Hemp is unregulated product, masquerading as cannabis, contaminated w/ chemicals and unknowns
Confident folks in DC get rid of hemp
Believe, whether 6-12 months or more, the drink category is real and will exist
Tons of uncertainty
Seeing OH price stabilize and revenue go up as units increase due to consumer demand
Closure of hemp loophole will cause price stabilization
Many supply abundances/gaps in specific markets that could impact things
Wasn’t an option for RYM to consolidate GTBIF
GTBIF will control RYM, once vote is approves, forcing consolidation
Investment in GA operator
GA next steps, too preliminary to make a call.
^ watching what is happening, excited about it
Full plate w/ VA and TX, not ignoring GA
In FL 5 incremental stores opening between now and EOY, path for more stores.
Seeing nice SSS growth.
If there is a hemp ban, think that market receives additional support
MSOS the only buyer in this space of size
Believe the next 6 months could potentially be the most exciting in the entire company’s history
/end
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CB1 has a position and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.