Land Shark

Something is stirring in Cannabis Cove.

Daily Recap

Once upon a time in 2007, I observed a Land Shark named American Home Mortgage.

If you don’t know that what I’m talking about it’s not your fault. I’m an old and nostalgic fucker who’s been doing this a long time. I’ve seen lots, told many a tale and sometimes I notice that history, or a reflection thereof, seems to rhyme.

16 years ago this month, I wrote about this thing stirring offshore. It was a precursor of things to come but most folks didn’t pay attention bc they were making too much money—but AHM was the tremor that preceded the shakes ahead of the quake.

I hadn’t given much thought to a potential Cronos-Curaleaf-Altria throuple before 2:47 PM ET yesterday, other than maybe once overhearing Altria was sweet on Curaleaf, as long as the federal regulatory landscape was amenable or a deal could be structured arms-length to ring-fence Altria from any 280E tax implications.

There are several reasons these discussion make sense (CRON cash balance > market cap/ international assets /biosynthetics /more below) but we have questions:

Would Cronos shareholders bless a consummation near an all-time low?

Could Curaleaf justify the deal given minimal, if any, overlap/ cost-savings?

And most importantly for prevailing sentiment: where will Altria net out—would this be their entrée or an exit?

After 877 days in the hole, a ready-fire-aim mindset has become the default mechanism of anyone still silly enough to be hanging around these parts—and the message has become crystal clear, whether it’s M&A, DC, or even the FDA/HHS/DOJ thing:

Time will tell if these latest headlines are akin to a reverse-AHM for U.S canna but we do know there’s numerous potential catalysts b/w now and year-end, be it SAFE Banking (senate finance committee next three weeks?), an expedited scheduling review, the Garland memo, or even more battleground states swinging green.

If markets are a fwd-looking discounting mechanism (they are) and the next six months are catalyst-rich (we’ll see), we should have answers soon enough; to wit, someone has been quietly accumulating U.S cannabis via the NYSE-listed ETF MSOS of late, perhaps with this in mind

The table seems set but as always, time, and price, will tell.

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑

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