Liar... Liar?

Biden fibbed; what will Trump do?

Daily Recap

For the first time in generations, a major overhaul of federal drug policy appeared imminent. In his final year in office, former President Biden moved to downgrade cannabis from the government’s most restrictive class of drugs.

Donald Trump endorsed the idea last September, shortly before the election, saying it stood to “unlock the medical uses of marijuana.” Biden whiffed on his promises—undermined in large part by the DEA—and conventional wisdom is that President Trump will do the same.

There are legitimate concerns. A few months into Trump’s new term, there has been radio silence about moving canna to a less restrictive category, and his appointment of Terry Cole as DEA Admin is as troubling as Matt Gaetz was exciting, ick-factor not included.

A former DEA agent told the NYT agency leaders opposed moving cannabis to a less restrictive category and intentionally slow-walked the reform to thwart Biden’s goal.

“Cannabis reform appears to be all but dead in this administration,” he continued, “To use a Trump term, it was rigged not to succeed.”

The market certainly trades that way. U.S. cannabis ETF MSOS was trading $55 when Weekend at Bernie’s began and was $3 by the time Biden left office. It’s even lower now, pricing in no reform as a Hunger Games mentality manifests among state-legal operators who are exhausted by the uneven status quo and fugazi war on drugs.

Will Donald J. Trump keep his campaign pledges and normalize an industry that treats 425,000 gainfully employed Americans as second-class citizens as they generate $32B in top-line revenues for the economy?

We believe he will but until he actually does, the U.S. cannabis industry will continue to devolve and sans reform, the only supply left will be from the crime rings and cartels.

Meet the Fockers

Leon County prosecutors in Florida say there is an open criminal investigation relating to information a lawmaker provided concerning the Hope Florida Foundation.

A records custodian said the information couldn’t be released because it was “part of an open, ongoing investigation.” The response was the first confirmation of any law enforcement investigation related to the foundation tied to Gov. DeSantis and his wife.

Hoffa Puffs

A federal judge has struck down a voter-approved Oregon law that required licensed marijuana business enter into labor peace agreements with workers and mandated that employers remain neutral in discussions around unionization.

Under the now defunct law, a cannabis business that was unable to provide proof of a labor peace agreement could have been subject a denial or revocation of their license.

Mr. Sandman

In a few years, CBN has gone from an unheard-of cannabinoid toward the top the list of top-selling edible products. Cannabis companies say the compound promotes sleep, and as of this year, the three best-selling edibles in California all contain CBN.

THC being the most famous intoxicating pot compound and CBD, the second-most popular compound, boomed in popularity thanks to its lack of inebriating effects.

Now, CBN has become the latest cannabinoid to gain steam in the legal market, jumping its market share in the state’s edible products from 4% in 2020 to 25% this year, a 525% increase in the past half-decade, according to data from Headset.

Stocks & Stuff

U.S. markets were bumping and grinding into areas of technical contention until a weak 20-year bond auction sent yields to highs of day—and pressured stocks to close near the lows of the session.

U.S. cannabis ETF MSOS finished the day off 3% on vapor thin volume.

Below, we’ll top-line recent happenings, measure the macro, finger green shoots, share random thoughts, dig deeper on Trulieve, and ease toward the summer.

All that and more, just scroll down.

note: Canna Confidential will be news-dependent tmrw and I’ll be taking a personal day Friday into the long weekend. Please enjoy and stay safe.

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑ ETF Notional: $15M

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