Spy vs. Spy

Tensions rise as DC winds down

Daily Recap

The Hump Day tenor for cannabis stocks was set late Tuesday after two leading political publications posted updates on the near-term fate of SAFE Banking that, at first glance, seemed completely at odds with each other.

Politico reported Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) was “sorting out complications…as he prepares for a potential committee vote,” while PunchBowl quoted Senator Steve Daines (R-MO) as saying he “didn’t see any positive yardage” during last week’s holiday recess.

These, of course, are not inherently conflicting statements; it’s possible that both are telling the truth and the missing context is one of sequencing.

[We know Dems want as much social justice as possible and the GOP has drawn a quasi-firm line in the sand on what they deem to be acceptable (and reportedly, what was already agreed upon)]

Whether this is political theater or the latest in a long line of DC disappointments remains to be seen but as we discussed yesterday, we won’t have to wait very long to find out; the Senate has nine more working sessions before they retreat to the beach for August as the rest of us react to what they could—or couldn’t—get done.

Truth is, I awoke today with the same feeling many of you did: NOT THIS F*CKING SH*T AGAIN! but the reality is that we're gonna take each card as it comes, whether it's legislation, M&A, federal lawsuits, rescheduling recommendations, The Garland Memo, earnings (August) or something completely left-field, and we’re gonna…

…adapt. BC if you haven’t figured it out by now, we’re just pawns in this master class chess game b/w seasoned politicians, many of whom shoulda been put to pasture long ago, and the big-ticket lobbyists who bankroll the lifestyles of the rich and shameless.

[Last time I was in D.C, I told a lawmaker, “We want to support you. We want to write you a check. But to do that, we’re going to need banking.” That seemed to resonate.]

No matter what happens, there will be a forward path. Some scenarios (incremental federal reform) suggest broader and more inclusive industry participation, including many of the state-level social justice endeavors; other scenarios (the Status Quo/ this continuous war of attrition) will favor a select few who will take share + build scale.

What’s difficult to envision is a scenario where these fledgling social justice programs succeed and the top-tier multistate operators—the pioneers and entrepreneurs who’ve navigated this FUBAR landscape better than anyone else— fail.

As we’ve said before, U.S cannabis can’t be an ‘us vs. them’ thing, it needs to be a ‘we and how’ thing to ultimately succeed; we dig deeper into our thoughts on SAFE below.

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑

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