The Hump Day Hash Out
Cannaland crawls into the back-half of the week.
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Recent Recap (written at 730AM in real-time on X-subs)
Quick and dirty this morning as I have an OOO that’ll keep me away from my turret for a few hours. This is the last OOO meet this week (that I know of) and given what happens when I’m OOO, perhaps that’ll prove to be a positive (spoiler alert: it wasn’t).
I wish I had something juicy this morning to share but the song remains the same as patience continues to thin. I see and hear the same prohibitionist rhetoric as you do which also has been an omen in the past through the lens of doth protest too much.
I’m past the point of whether or not we’ll get S3 and on to the potential that there may be capital markets and uplisting language attached as no law prevents U.S. banks from custody or exchanges from listing—it’s a compliance issue, and POTUS isn’t a fan.
Today is the 42nd day of 2026 and there are 264 days until the midterm elections and I share this as POTUS’ approval ratings could use a boost, particularly amongst the youth vote, and especially given crypto lost alotta luster since his second term began.
Chart-wise, the ETF is doing it’s best impersonation of Pinocchio’s girlfriend (tell the truth, tell a lie!; tell the truth, tell a lie!) between 200day SMA and 200day EMA and traders will be watching that for clues in the absence of a federal fuse.
Top Stories
It’s time to admit that America has a Marijuana Problem (NYT)
The New York Times Is Wrong About Cannabis and the Data Proves It
The NYT Is Not Examining the Real World Evidence on Cannabis 👀
Rescheduling Cannabis Could Bring Big Tax Breaks and Quiet Deregulation
Florida Spent $4 Million In Opiate Settlement To Defeat Marijuana Legalization
New Criminal Sanctions Proposed For Unlicensed Cannabis Activity In Virginia
Are Republicans in Pa. ready for legal weed this year? Advocates are skeptical
Online Canna Sales are Booming in Germany, Government Racing to Catch Up
Illegal cannabis farms poison California’s forests. Who’s cleaning them up?
Why THC drinks are coming to The United Center despite a looming federal ban
Industry Headlines
C21 Reports Third Quarter Financial Results
Curaleaf Strategic Refinancing Proposed: $500M Senior Secured Notes Offering
Organigram Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
AWH Announces Preliminary Unaudited Q4/FY25 Results
Random Thoughts
Organigram missed on a higher than expected SG&A spend and lower international sales, as the Canadian names continue to report. The U.S. kind is right behind, with Curaleaf and Ascend offering a scent of the state of the status quo.
Curaleaf announced a proposed $500M Refi of Senior Secured Notes out to 2029, which has been expected since they preannounced a few weeks ago but still a nice monkey to get off of one’s back.
Ascend preannounced a decent quarter/ year while also disclosing an unexpected arbitration ruling, which stings but won’t impact their core business. They have levers (and huge torque on S3) and we remain long the name.
The discussions behind the seemingly quiet scene continues, be it conversations re: capital markets, inbound calls (to operators) from U.S. exchanges, or meaningful M&A.
IDK if that’ll be part of ‘next steps,’ or if those steps will follow, but I do know…
The Demand Curve
Whitney Economics: The U.S. THC Beverage Report (Sept. ‘25)
The Howard Kessler CBD/ Medicare by the end of Q1 tell: Charlotte’s Web 🕸️
ATB on Florida Cannabis
The February 1st deadline has passed, and state officials have indicated that the campaign did not meet the required signature threshold. However, there are still pending lawsuits and outstanding information from counties regarding petitions submitted before the deadline.
The campaign argues there's still a chance to meet the threshold.
Additionally, the Attorney General withdrew the case for the Supreme Court review, and the Supreme Court has not yet opined on the ballot language. Please note that some media reports on this matter (like this one) are misleading.
Bottom line: Florida legalization is currently in legal limbo. At this stage, it appears the state has the upper hand, and the likelihood of the measure making the ballot is small. This is a negative catalyst for the sector given how large the Florida market is, and particularly for a company like Trulieve.However, given the muted market reaction to these updates so far, we believe (1) little to no probability of Florida legalizing had been priced in, and (2) investors are almost entirely focused on the rescheduling catalyst (nothing else matters much).
Stems & Seeds
Researchers ‘surprised’ by the brain benefits of cannabis usage in adults over 40
CBD May Help Overcome Leukemia Drug Resistance By Targeting MicroRNAs
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
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CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.