Tuesday's with Story
Cannaland awaits guidance and clarity.
Recent Recap
Welcome back to the slow-motion pivot, where It’s hard to encapsulate the range of (e)motion over the last few weeks.
There was our big news, the harsh reaction that back-tested the 200day, the Friday bounce after holding the level it had to, last week’s flag in an attempt to refresh, followed by Friday’s 🧲 to the outsized open interest at $5, and yesterday’s drift.
Verano and VEXT, both of whom were still operating in the status quo last quarter, reported and spoke of forward growth, tax savings, and expansion plans—and we also had a TerrAscend preannouncement—and we can expect more granularity as earnings continue this week, starting with Curaleaf this evening.
With the AU ALJ hearing next month and guidance expected from federal agencies, headline risk has shifted to the upside, at least into the hearing itself. As discussed, after so many people got burned while trying to bake this emerging market bread…
…the denial-migration-panic continuum continues as the big players remain sidelined absent capital market guidance. Remember, we need plumbing before there can be any meaningful liquidity that is sticky enough to create institutional cap tables.
On a housekeeping note, I will be away from the desk Wednesday afternoon through the weekend as I have some personal matters to attend to and plan to work remotely to chew through the TerrAscend, Trulieve, and Cresco reports.
Chart Check: MSOS
Below is the three-year weekly chart as we take a step back and view this progression through a broader lens. We can see a weekly flag above the 50- and 100-week, with the 200day SMA and EMA at $6.27 and $8.13 respectively.
Top Stories
The Cannabis Industry’s New Best Friend? President Trump
Nearly 400 Businesses Sign Up For DEA Medical Marijuana Dispensary Portal
Massachusetts Marijuana Sales Top $562M In 2026 As All-Time Total Nears $11B
Nebraska Supreme Court Hears Appeal In Medical Canna Federal Preemption
Colorado Senate Committee Kills Bill To Overhaul Canna Taxes And Testing Rules
How to Utilize AI in the Future of Cannabis
Don’t toss canna leaves: Scientists found rare compounds with medical potential
Thailand Eyes Medical Cannabis As US Eases Restrictions
Cannabis-based drugs eye IPOs, private funding after reclassification decision👇
Hirsh Jain: Rescheduling, 280E & the DEA: What Businesses Need to Know
Curaleaf Completes Buyout of Remaining Stake in Germany’s Four 20 Pharma
Why Village Farms Is Sitting Out the M&A Rush
How cannabis MSO TerrAscend is responding to federal marijuana rescheduling
Big Pharma Gave Up on Superbugs. This Pharmacist Asked the Cannabis Plant Instead 👀
Quote of the Day
“The reason why the stocks should trade well over time are for the other aspects. The fact that the DOJ put in a recommendation to the treasury to give us back our back taxes once its rescheduled. The fact that the treasury put out a letter clarifying that it would be retroactive to the beginning of the year. That’s as close to a love letter you’re going to get from the treasury department.” Jason Wild, Chairman TerrAscend
Joe Rogan and Ari Shaffir on marijuana rescheduling
ATB on Verano
Looking beyond the results, we view the recent rescheduling of medical cannabis as the true highlight for investors; 280E will no longer apply to medical sales (~60% of Verano’s retail sales).
Notably, Verano screens attractively on a relative basis, with the stock well positioned to substantially outperform if its valuation catches up to peers. Verano trades at a NTMe EV/EBITDA of 3.8x, a discount to the Tier 1 average of 6.5x.
Stems & Seeds
Cannabis Was A Core Crop In Ancient China Alongside Rice And Wheat
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.