Whispering Angels
A wicked whisper made the rounds: be patient.
I’m still not sure where I’m going w this substack thing but let’s take ‘er for a spin.
This’ll be quick, in part bc I’m bw peloton and whatever dinner awaits, and bc I need to start squirreling intelligent / original thought for next month’s investor letter. We still have time, I think… but I should prolly take a day off soon.
US cannabis traded heavy today. Why? BC chatter made the rounds mid-day that SAFE Banking may be pushed to 2H21. We know weed ain’t Uncle Joe’s thing so this wouldn’t be a shocker; but is it true?
This was the five-point bear case I heard today:
SAFE will be pushed to 2H21 bc Trump trial and covid > cannabis.
Broader market are dancing on the head of a pin; cannabis will correct w tape.
Zona “should have triggered a bigger rally” (note: $HRVSF and $VEXTF both rallied 20% on the news).
Institutions handcuffed until SAFE (note: HF / FO / Int’l $ are happy to play)
“Valuations have gotten ahead of themselves.”
To which I say: maybe.
We’ve written often— linking our blog bc truth is our thing—that fast money bought US cannabis into the election but smart money was and remains focused on the killer fundamentals. That’s where we land, not that we’re smart: we’re here for expanding TAM + eastern seaboard adoption; the fed arbs of SAFE / Cap mkts / 280E are gravy.
Will the space sell-off IF SAFE isn’t in the March / April CV bill? Prolly IDK; depends on where we are at the time? But I’ll note my back-channel check didn’t support the assertion that SAFE was pushed but really, who knows? We can only control what we can control; besides, since when are sales such a bad thing?
Look at GTII, or Green Thumb, maybe the best pound-for-pound fighter in the US MSO octagon. Down 4% today. Gasp! 4%! That’s LIBOR x Bitcoin, divided by a leap year, rounded down. Meanwhile, GTI, which is +688% in ten months, trades where in a nuclear winter: $20? Maybe? That’s 33% and not to be glib, I’m not that concerned.
Why? Because that’s the bet. US Cannabis. We can slice and dice the charts and narrative till we’re blue in the face but at the end of the day, this is our bet. Not just about money, my name and word too. All in. Two arms, two legs, a tail. If I’m wrong, sure-as-shit wouldn’t be the first time. But if I’m right, and I think I am, GTI is my blankee.
Lee Cooperman owns a slug.
Bill Miller just filed as a first time holder.
More states are coming, more channels are opening, more people are realizing that cannabis was weaponized in a misguided War on Drugs. But it’s more than that; it’s therapeutic, benevolent and holy shit, I can sleep again.
So yes please, with sugar on top; push SAFE out a few months. Shake that tree. Chase those weak hands. Get the bandwagon fans off my truck. Because this is our time.
/position $GTBIF
Todd, thank you for sharing. I have read all three of your posts, you write as if we are sitting backing have a coffee/beer/wine/whiskey/cannabis. thank you for your candor.
We may huddle up temporarily, but as the war on this plant continues, acceptance will prevail.