Freaky Friday Random Thoughts

Musings on the global cannabis shake and bake.

It’s been a wild week as stock market vol and cosmic charlie’s collided.

Let’s start w some snaps.

Everyone—me included—has rightfully taken shots @ MSM for their willful ignorance / gross negligence re: the great american growth story that is U.S Cannabis.

But CNBC stepped up big-time this week, first by highlighting this awesome effort from Chris Webber and Jason Wild as they lead by example.

And hosting Big Ben @ Green Thumb in this segment, as he dropped some truth.

and TY Timmy Seymour for pushing to make this happen. I know how much heavy lifting this required behind the scenes, and the #MSOGang appreciates YOU.

Nestlé Cannabis

Swiss food giant Nestlé has been planting cannabis seeds for years, so to speak.

One thing we know: there’s a massive corporate buy-build on the horizon and it'll only take one beefy CPG deal before we see gangbuster M&A across multiple industries.

Remember, the Senate flipped last month and there’s so much to unpack as corporate America scrambles to identify their U.S canna strategy. And scrambling they are.

The good news? The right stocks will create generational wealth.

The bad news? Our cottage industry gonna turn into an industrial complex.

Was gonna happen sooner or later; and that here is now.

U.S Cannabis Valuations

We were jumping up and down last yr about "growth @ value" (distressed) multiples.

That phase has largely passed although there are definite pockets of value out there.

The next wave of states is not priced in and they're all coming btw.

+ federal arbs have yet to collapse.

+ insitutional migration remains in front of us.

+ understanding the science will illuminate the consumer curve.

Risk Factors

With the recent re-rating of MSO multiples, some of the cushion has been removed from our funamental thesis, making it prone if not ripe for disappointment.

One such risk is possible delays at the state level, which is making the rounds now in New Jersey, which could lead to speculation that state-level infighting will be a thing.

Spoiler Alert: It will be a thing, the only question is how big a thing considering all these states need money, all these people need jobs, and oh yeah—it’s good for you.

But NJ is on deadline + it’s Freaky Friday + Mercury Retrograde + the near-term media over-saturation sell signal is in place after a full week of waving this flag wide and high. Stay humble or the market will do it for you. This, I know.

(RR if u see this click here ^)

Framing the Set-up

So yeah, if Murphy’s Law doens’t land the right way, the first move will likely be lower, and how you address that is as unique as your finger print. Traders, investors, so on.

Gonna use the US Cannabis ETF $MSOS as a proxy. We advise them, as many of you know but we’ll always disclose that nice and loud so everyone’s on the same page.

Not gonna lie: I’m sorta, kinda expecting U.S cannabis to break out to the upside and capture the sweet spot *into* earnings before perhaps a more meaningful mid-March correction but who knows? We can pick the direction or timing but rarely both.

If we flunk flag, that lifetime trendline resides below and that would be the next level up; and really, until that breaks, all of this is just noise. Messy, but noise.

LOGIC: We just had a huge run + there are possible delays for the easiest east coast domino + sentiment is frothy + there’s the broader tape + the ongoing process of price discovery for this emerging asset class + stocks sometimes go down.

Lots for a trader to consider but little for an investor to worry about IMO.

BTW we saw sellers lurking in the darks today and those goniffs followed stocks lower, and we also saw a meaty $MSOS hedge / short spec early on.

Yep, whispers were making the rounds today; they like to talk, don’t they?

US Canna Earnings Cometh

Curaleaf $CURLF will kick off US cannabis earnings on March 9th, which is a new tact for them and something that didn’t go unnoticed.

Call me old fashioned but if BoJo, JoBa & Co. are sending calendar invites, I don’t imagine they’re gonna drop any bombs.

And yes, the best part about Canadian cannabis reporting first is the dichotomy that will be readily apparant once the MSO’s share their tale. Night and day. You’ll see.

Vision Quest

This Realvision Segment taped late Wednesday is a deep dive into all things cannabis.

Snaps to that platform and the talented Max Wiethe, who kept coming w the hard Qs.

I, State your Name

In a little late day how’s-your-father, njdotcom reporter Amanda Hoover reported at 3:30 that the New Jersey war was over; that Wormer dropped the big one.

Which gave a red session for U.S canna an extra nut-punch into the close. Love those.

But then, after the close, Politico Pro reported this:

So who knows what is going on. But for and with our money, we’re trading around cores, rotating risk and really, just dialed into what’s to come. Because idk the next 25% but I have a strong sense on the next two-fitty.

And that’s why we’re here, right? Right.

And finally…

Just to really put the maloika on the US canna bull market, Jeff Schultz and I gonna host our first Clubhouse tonight w special guests Ben Kovler and Brady Cobb.

Still finding the proverbial bathroom w this thing so forgive any slips but if you can get there, we’re gonna take it for a spin.

Thank you. And HEY…

/positions in stocks mentioned /advisor $MSOS