Hump Day Hashish
A random walk through Cannaland.
Recent Recap
We arrive at the weekly hump with expiration Friday on tap as Cannaland continues to await game-changing federal reform, an event that is a matter of when, not if, per the CEO and Chairman of Curaleaf, Boris Jordan, yesterday on TDR…
I’ve run out of ways to articulate how the powers that be can have an outsized impact on expirations in our space but suffice to say that thin, low volume marketplaces sans institutional flows can be moved easily, if not on demand, to inflict maximum pain.
We got more earnings but this sector isn’t driven by that. It’ll heat up with legitimate federal movement, not talk, chatter, or whispers; we need clarity, parity and growth.
Yes, lawsuits will be filed as soon as the rule hits but that, we’re told, is why this hasn’t been completed yet. DJT doesn’t want S3 to face the same fate as his tariff tries, not with the midterms 230 days away and crypto having cooled the youth vote.
While several sector catalysts await Schedule III (states like PA and legislation that’ll pass under a new classification), the timing remains fluid given the state of the ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
Aside from that, Virginia looks like it’ll launch adult-use as soon as January 1st, which will benefit operators like GTI, Verano, and Jushi, and the hemp ban, if that sticks for November, will migrate a portion of those sales into the tested and regulated channel.
The frustration surrounding this sector continue less than three months into 2026, which is understandable after six years of a brutal bear market. The ETF is churning under the 200day at pre-SIII EO levels but that too is subject to change.
Control what we can, navigate the rest, and remember in 100 years, none will matter.
Top Stories
How a Billionaire Friend Changed Trump’s Mind About Pot
FDA Sends CBD Compliance and Enforcement Policy for White House Review
Why rescheduling cannabis marks a critical move
Georgia House Passes Bill To Expand Medical Cannabis Program
Texas Ban on Smokable Hemp Product Sales Starts March 31
Nebraska Legislature Advances First Medical Cannabis Bill
Hiding in the federal hemp crackdown is a hyperlocal opportunity
States Move To Tighten Rules Around Hemp THC Products Ahead Of Federal Ban
Tolls won’t fix Indiana’s budget. Legal marijuana might.
Industry Headlines
Village Farms Earnings + Call Notes
TerrAscend Earnings + Call Notes
Ascend Wellness Earnings + Call Notes
Trulieve Announces Executive Automatic Securities Disposition Plan
^ sales are authorized to begin on June 17, 2026. Of all the MSO CEOs, Kim is the most plugged in and I don’t believe she arbitrarily picked this date.
TerrAscend Chairman Jason Wild on their latest quarter
Chatter Box
Financial institutions (credit unions, banks, regional / community banks) continue to make repeated outgoing calls to companies in the space; “speak to you in April” was a quote, but it’s not my quote, it was a rep from one of the inbound banks.
Random Thought
Feels like consolidation is about to ramp up, based on a number of discussions.
ATB on how cannabis is eating alcohol’s lunch
ATB on Cannabis
US canna stock performance since 2021 (the MSOS ETF is down 90%+ from the 2021 highs) has contributed to extremely negative investor perception over the operational quality of MSOs.
However, while the market headwinds of price compression and retail saturation are real and acutely negative, we believe the narrative of sector-wide operational failure or extreme inefficiency is decoupled from the underlying data.
The operational response from Tier 1s to market headwinds paints them in a better color. While Tier 1 aggregate sales declined 4% in the 2022-2025 period, companies scaled volumes and optimized store footprints to partially offset price compression and declining sales per store.
It’s might come as a surprise that despite price and sales per store declines of over 50% in certain markets, Tier 1s actually reported an average gross margin of 51.7% in 2025, up from 48.9% in 2022. Meanwhile, the average adj. EBITDA margin held at 27.8% in 2025 (from 28.6% in 2022), which again is a surprising performance considering the operating deleverage impact of a shrinking top line.
Looking at individual companies, it’s clear that Green Thumb is the best operator and capital allocator, the only to report an increase in revenue and adj. EBITDA during the period while reducing its shares outstanding. Trulieve follows, with leading adj. EBITDA margins supported by its Florida scale and efficiency.
Bottom line: While the US cannabis market has much to be disliked, the operational performance of Tier 1s hasn’t been as bad as it seems, at least relative to the market conditions.
Ascend Wellness Budtenders keeping it real
Joe Rogan and Russell Crowe on cannabis vs. alcohol
The More You Know…
Stems & Seeds
A new scientific review concludes cannabis may be a gateway to women’s orgasm
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.