Push Comes to Shove

U.S. canna stares down another year-end.

Daily Recap

If the intoxicating hemp market is eliminated by the federal action on November 12, the growth rate of the state-licensed market could double through 2029, creating a market $10B larger than current BDSA forecast of $39B and generating an additional $21B in legal cannabis revenue over the next four years.

The model, which may be aggressive given the rate and pace of adoption will vary by the state, suggests that if only one-quarter of (what would have been) the $38B in ‘29 hemp-derived sales moves to state-legal operators, it would double the state-licensed growth to a 9% CAGR through 2029 ($49B vs. current $39B BDSA forecasts).

Motion vs. Movement

While most eyes are on the Trump administration for potential rescheduling move, multiple cannabis-related bills were filed in the 119th Congress and remain in place into the midterm elections.

These include the MORE Act, STATES 2.0, the Vets Equal Access Act, Vets Canna Use for Safe Healing Act, the Evidence-Based Drug Policy Act of 2025, Federal Hemp THC Ban Amendment, the Military Construction & VA Approps Marijuana Amendment, the PREPARE Act, the No Deductions for Marijuana Businesses Act, the Marijuana 1-to-3 Act, the Hemp Economic Mobilization Plan Act and the RESPECT Resolution.

The hope among industry advocates is that rescheduling will create a halo effect that will unfreeze the legislative logjam and flip states into regulated state-level regimes.

Court Marshal

One of the nation’s leading constitutional and administrative law scholars, Columbia law Professor Philip Hamburger, believes the Supreme Court should consider the case of Canna Provisions, Inc. v. Bondi and use it to overrule Gonzales v. Raich (2005).

“Having departed from the Constitution in profoundly troubling ways, the Court should embrace the opportunity to correct its errors.”

Mas Mass

With less than a month remaining in 2025, Massachusetts is on pace to surpass last year’s record sales despite the record-low prices that continue to reshape consumer behavior and the economic landscape. State canna sales were strong in November, with $147M in monthly revenues, driving the YTD total to $1.66B as of December 2.

Stocks & Stuff

Wall Street broke a four-day winning streak ahead of the year’s last Fed meeting and despite an all-but-certain December cut, traders remain wary about the pace of next year’s cuts. The S&P closed slightly lower, albeit spitting distance to an all-time high.

Canna stocks were off, as well, with U.S. cannabis ETF MSOS losing 7% (-5% YTD) as the calendar continues to flip forward without federal reform. While SCOTUS will gain some mindshare into the weekend, the year-end wish-list remains singularly focused.

Below, we’ll top-line today, review the current set-up, share a MJBiz recap and chase some of the rumors that returned from the desert, highlight a huge weekend of due dilly, and review current U.S. pricing trends ahead of the intoxicating hemp ban.

All that and more, just scroll down.

note: Cannabis Confidential will be offline from Dec. 16th through Year-end.

SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑ ETF Notional: $26M

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