What Hump?
Cannaland climbs past Wednesday.
We hiked over the hump looking pa nub in all the right places as we know what we need and dare I say, what we expect, but we don’t know the exact when and markets hate uncertainty, particularly when there’s a 70%+ effective tax rate involved.
^ many industry folks think 280E stopped in 2023 when the HHS deemed there to be medical value, but we don’t know if it will be settled or litigated; and this is the last of the three amigos necessary for a cannabis bull market.
There are 271 days until the midterms as BTC trades $73K, which is 28% lower than when DJT took office. I bring that up as cannabis is the second political tentpole for the youth vote and this administration needs that demo (-48% per Dec YouGov).
Some C-suites tell me they’ve spoke to large institutions who are waiting on a final rule to bum rush the space. IDK if that’s true, but the December rug pull created a lot of itchy trigger fingers for the next rush of liquidity.
Truth is that until there is proper plumbing (custody/ exchanges) liquidity will be choppy, challenged, and ‘in touch with,’ but we expect a second sequence of reform to follow a final rule, perhaps sooner than many expect.
It's currently quiet in our corner of the universe and while that’s how 2026 has started, its not how it’ll finish; we just gotta go through it to get to it and we’re doing that now.
Top Stories
Pennsylvania Governor Calls for Recreational Cannabis to be Legalized During Budget Address 👇
“This budget proposes a regulatory framework to legalize and tax adult use cannabis and provide a real opportunity for Pennsylvania farmers to cultivate a new, legal industry and establish a thriving market for the state.”- Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA)
Florida Canna Campaign Says There’s Still a Chance to Make 2026 Ballot 👇
“We submitted over 1.4 million signatures and believe, when they are all counted, we will have more than enough to make the ballot.”- Smart and Safe Florida
Hemp And Cannabis Are The Same Species. So Why All The Different Laws?
Missouri Cannabis Firms Sue Hemp Shops Over THCA Flower Sales
Wisconsin Democrats highlight hemp in latest push to legalize marijuana
Oregon Marijuana Sales Total $74.3 Million In January
U.S.V.I Fast-Tracks Canna Sales to This Fall After Securing Banking Partner
Brazil’s Health Agency Eases Rules On Medicinal Cannabis Use
Dark Money Is Fueling Prohibitionist Campaigns To Repeal Legalization
Maine Campaign To Kill Adult-Use Canna Misses 2026 Signature Deadline
Industry Headlines
FLUENT Cannabis Opens New Orlando Sand Lake Dispensary
Aurora Cannabis Announces Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results
Cannara Announces Strategic C$6.3M Non-Brokered Placement Priced > Market
Alpha Nooner: Mackenzie Peterson & Todd Harrison 👇
Random Thoughts
Timing news in this sector has been the definition of insanity but our time is coming.
The question is: will it provide exit liquidity again, or be an onramp for new capital?
The answer is both, depending on your time horizon.
I know a smart fella working on a column re: which companies are best positioned.
The next shoe to drop—custody, listing, access to capital markets—will be the one that gets toes tapping because the structural fuckery has been our Achilles Heel.
It’ll be choppy and sloppy both ways, with extra special fuckery focused on Op-Ex, as we saw in December (and January, for that matter).
It’ll all come down to the inflow of incremental or institutional capital and/ or CPG M&A, both of which will take time to manifest.
Cresco, now Aurora, with an ATM, almost as if they’re positioning ahead of a catalyst.
For the first time since December 18, there was an inflow yesterday for the MSOS ETF consisting of 1,500,000 share creates valued at $6.62M. Thanks Jane.
Dry January Boosts THC Beverage Sales, But Effect Is Felt Year-Round 👇
Stems & Seeds
Real-World Study Shows Medical Cannabis Improves Chronic Pain, Anxiety, Sleep
Harms Associated with Alcohol, Tobacco Far Outweigh Cannabis-Related Risks
This Zoo Says CBD Is Helping Its Senior Animals Act Young Again
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.
Good framing on the infrastructure bottleneck. I've watched a few sectors thru this phase and it's always choppy til the plumbing gets sorted. The MSOS inflow after all that drought is kinda telling tho—somebody's positionning ahead of smth. I trade microcaps mostly but saw similar stuff whn Coinbase got their listing sorted and everybody was waiting on custody solutoins. Midterms timing makes sense for a catalyst but the real Q is if institutions actually pull the trigger or just keep sitting on their hands.