Pardon the Interruption
Bill would expunge pardoned pot prisoner records.
Daily Recap
Bipartisan congressional lawmakers have filed a bill to provide for the expungement of records for people who’ve received presidential pardons, including non-violent cannabis offenses, per Marijuana Moment.
The legislation from Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) and David Trone (D-MD) and four other cosponsors is named after our friend Weldon Angelos, who was granted a pardon under the Trump administration for his own canna conviction and has since become an outspoken advocate for reform.
The Weldon Angelos Presidential Pardon Expungements Act would require the Administrative Office of the United States Courts, within one year of enactment, to implement rules to facilitate the “review, expungement, sealing, sequester and redaction” of criminal records for low-level federal crimes, including cannabis cases.
“Having personally endured a disproportionately harsh sentence and faced the barriers that persist even after receiving a full presidential pardon, this bill is nothing short of life changing. When a president grants a full pardon, it should truly offer a second chance.” Weldon Angelos
More on the journey of Weldon Angelos:
U.S Cannabis: Do The Right Thing (Feb 2022)
Mr. Angelos Goes to Washington (July 2022)
Down to the Wire (Aug 2022)
D.C. Confidential (May 2023)
Make America Green Again™️ (May 2024)
Unlikely Allies (July 2024)
[pls click here to support The Weldon Project and be the change you hope to see]
The 51st State
Six years after Canada legalized cannabis sales nationwide, a new government report shows that daily or near-daily use rates by both adults and youth have held steady.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of consumers now say they obtain cannabis legally, with only 3% of respondents reporting purchasing from illicit sources. By comparison, in 2019, a year after shops opened, 16% reported buying cannabis from an illegal source.
Bucky Badgers
The governor of Wisconsin says marijuana legalization is one of several key priorities the state should pursue in the 2025 session, as lawmakers work with a budget surplus.
During a budget tour stop last week, Gov. Tony Evers (D) laid out his administration’s post-election agenda, putting “legalizing marijuana” second on a list of items he’d like to see implemented in the new year.
While Dems picked up several seats, breaking a Republican supermajority, they’re still outnumbered in both chambers, which will likely complicate attempts to enact broad legalization until at least after the 2026 elections.
Penn State
Pennsylvania State Reps. Dan Frankel and Rick Krajewski are rolling out a substantial new recreational cannabis legalization bill, one that outlines a model that would see canna sold in state-owned stores like liquor, while making room for private businesses in other parts of the industry, like growing, cultivation or bar-like consumption sites.
Stocks & Stuff
It was a show about nothing today as early strength gave up pa nub as the broader market slipped. U.S. cannabis ETF MSOS earned itself a Blutarski, with a zero point zero percentage showing on the session.
Below, we’ll top-line the landscape, review recent legal happenings, count down the days of the 118th Congress, update the choke point catalyst, look toward the other side of tax-loss selling, and spy an unexpected positive.
All that and more, just scroll down.
I’ll be offline Dec. 20th through New Year’s. Healthy & safe holidays to you and yours.
SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ MSOS 0.00%↑ ETF Notional: $63M
Top Stories
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Inside the UK's 'secret' £10m medicinal cannabis factory
Thousands of Kansans are Missouri medical marijuana patients 👇
Industry Headlines
Trulieve to Open Medical Cannabis Dispensary in Tampa, Florida
Canopy and Acreage Confirm Canopy USA's Completed Acquisition of Acreage
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Pregame (written in real-time at 8AM ET) 👈
Welcome back to Hades, the current home of U.S. cannabis.
The last month has been brutal, with the FL loss and red sweep in early Nov. flipping the year-end switch and triggering tax-loss selling, if not full-fledged capitulation.
We got the last two 'known' catalysts for 2024 last week w the DEA ALJ hearing that scheduled testimonies (1/21- 3/6) and the Boies oral arguments, both of which have set stages for their next phases, but neither of which shook any stank off the space.
We posited over the summer bears would continue to press until it stopped working, and that is indeed what we've seen. They've become emboldened by the structural impediments and absent fresh news to shake the status quo, they'll continue to 🎯 a break of $4 to crush the will of the remaining bulls.
Congress will be in session until Dec. 20, which is also when I plan to begin a much-needed digital respite (through New Year’s), and while we don't expect SAFER in the lame duck, we won't know until the four corners meet and the 118th adjourns.
PS-
The twist of fate that’s kept a glimmer of hope alive for SAFER has nothing to do with cannabis and everything to do with Operation Choke Point 👇
I was unaware that Melania and Baron Trump were debanked, or that Elon and Vivek are “livid” about it, which makes #UnchokeTheSmoke a passenger on a Trump train intent on addressing the inequities of a deep state (and yes, I am a believer now).
PPS-
Anyone who sold on the failed FL vote / red sweep will be able to buy this week after having already booked those losses. That doesn't mean tax loss selling is over, nor is there telling when or if those who sold have an interest in ever coming back.
Chart Check
I’ve chewed through a slew of charts, few of which are constructive and all of which are subject to change—either way.
note: Cory has been super helpful and very active trying to help us push SAFER over the finish line this year.
Quotes of the Day
“If you are going through hell, keep going.”
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal; it is the courage to continue that counts.”
Winston Churchill
AGP on U.S. cannabis:
Last week, we attended MJBizCon in Las Vegas. Sector sentiment remains low after the FL adult-use measure failed to pass Nov 5th and uncertainty remains around the timing of when the first federal catalyst will come via rescheduling or otherwise.
While President-elect Trump has previously announced support for rescheduling, questions remain on how high of a priority it is post-election, with a focus on who is nominated/ultimately confirmed for key positions (AG, DEA & HHS).
With leading MSOs trading at 3.8x FY2 EBITDA this is well reflected in the stocks and we see opportunity for stabilization in the new year (tax loss = uncertainty through year-end) as potential clarity on catalysts come.
ATB on U.S. cannabis:
On a status quo base-case (no near-term rescheduling or new states legalizing), we estimate Tier 1s should trade at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of ~8.5x vs the current multiple of 4.4x.
The market is aggressively overweighting near-term regulatory setbacks and underweighting the long-term trend of an industry that will march towards full legalization.
Investors should focus on names with no near-term maturities, ability to generate cash flow, scale, and diversification. The Tier 1 pond is where investors should fish, and believe Green Thumb is the best fish to catch.
Stems & Seeds
Proud dad-share of this drawing by our thirteen-year-old daughter.
Have a safe journey and please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in / advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.