U.S Cannabis: Do You Believe in Miracles?

After ten months of losses, federal legislation has a shot on goal.

It’s been a week since we last spoke…

…and while it was one that disproportionately aged U.S cannabis investors after The Recipe for an Upside Surprise turned Our Trojan Horse into Elmer’s Glue…

…the bottom line for investors is this: after ten straight months of good news getting the snot beat out of it, wait—what are we even doing here anymore?

Sure credit got better by +500 bps (←credit investors are smarter than stock-jockeys); the tri-state will onboard + up to six more states should come online next year; stocks got cut in half this year and are now offering hyper-growth at value multiples; smart / insider money is buying and wait—what are we even doing here anymore?

On Monday, a dedicated cannabis hedge fund pinged me on Bloomberg:

13:45:36 Todd what’s ur guestimate on SAFE/NDAA?
13:46:45 Most buy-side in 1-10% range
TODD HARRISON
14:06:25 Maybe 50-50
14:06:31 Real Shot

And while the MSM reported that Senator Jeff Merkley, one of the sponsors of SAFE Banking, didn’t see a path forward for his bill in the NDAA…

…we asked whether this was a friendly head’s up or if perhaps reading bw the lines, he was pointing his finger at Senators Schumer and Booker as the ones to blame if it was removed from the final version. “Political theater at it’s finest,” said some observers.

U.S cannabis, at this point, had retraced the entirety of it’s seven session 32% rally (as measured by $MSOS). Mind boggling / nerve-wracking / humbling sure but also this:

We know there was much lower volume on the decline vs. the rip higher—a technical positive to some—and while the wise ones continued to offer the proper perspective…

…the A.D.D immediate gratification crowd was hitting the exits, content to come back later this / next month once their tax-losses harvest and the new year begins. After all, conventional wisdom is that SAFE via NDAA is DOA—so what is there to lose?

Meanwhile, the Treasury of the Secretary Janet Yellen said this…

…Representative Dave Joyce (R-OH) said that…

…and THIS happened…

…which represents (computes math) a shit-ton of votes into an election year. “I believe in coincidences, I’ve just never seen one,” says my pal Brady Cobb, who made a “SAFE in Q4” call last spring and has stuck to his guns ever since despite the noise and trolls who continue to toss peanuts from the cheap seats.

[clowns to the left of us, jokers to the right; here’s to the men and women in the arena]

And while none of us can predict the future…

…some saw the set-up as we edged through a trying week hoping against hope that a pathway to pardons might emerge that would allow Senators Schumer and Booker to let SAFE banking pass—because, you know, social equity without functional banking is a pipe dream and NY / NJ (home states) are counting on them to do the right thing.

…and to uber-analyst Camilo Lyon @ BTIG, the illumination was obvious…

…and for champions of the cause—people like Reps Perlmutter, Dave Joyce and AOC, who is rumored to be sizing Chuck up in the next primary, the table is seemingly set.

position / advisor US cannabis ETF $MSOS