Knick City Dancers
U.S cannabis lists on the big board.
Recent Recap
Last week, Trulieve jumped the shark as the first MSO to secure an uplist to a major U.S. exchange, a historic event scheduled to take place on the NYSE this morning.
They won’t be the last U.S. operator to list on a proper exchange but as the very first-mover, KimCo will enjoy the fruits of her labor as their road show continues.
Now that that’s out there, the question is whether the stock market will begin to price in this long-awaited migration, or if it continues to be a show-me story ahead of the ALJ AU hearing, which begin in three weeks and will, if successful, move adult-use canna into the same classification as MMJ (and simplify things for the industry).
As reverse stock splits continue (Curaleaf, Vireo, and Verano), the milestones before the midterms we’ve discussed all year are unfolding before our eyes. That includes S3, banking and listing, clemencies (which are coming, we think), and states’ rights.
Given current custody restrictions, it would make sense for the ETF to serve as a proxy for the U.S cannabis space as we edge toward the triple-lindy necessary for the canna bull which, as you know, is growth (2027), regulatory parity (it’s happening) and tax clarity (on it’s way).
It’s a historic week for our space as the industry readies to migrate to Chicago next week for the IgniteIt Canna Conference. I expect the mood will be a bit better than it’s been in the past and if you would like to join us, click here to take 20% off.
Chart Check: MSOS
The ETF took out the April high Monday before waffling on Turnaround Tuesday. If/ as it clears $5.58, it’ll set it’s sights on the December rug (the Trump S3 EO) highs at $7.23. That lift, as we know, had had nothing to do with uplisting (was a pipe dream).
Top Stories
Trulieve Makes History With First NYSE Cannabis Listing
Cannabis’ Challenge Isn’t Regulation – It’s Enforcement
Cannabis legislation could break Virginia’s budget impasse
Michigan’s cannabis tax gamble comes up short in first quarter
New Mexico built a successful cannabis market without the hype
The WNBA Just Dropped Its Weed Ban, Banned Psychedelics In Same Breath
Big Tobacco enters Dutch cannabis experiment with stake in largest grower
Industry Headlines
Trulieve Announces Uplist to NYSE
Trulieve Announces Share Repurchase Program
Could Glass House Brands be Next?
Village Farms Commences Cultivation in Phase II Facility in Netherlands
Random Thoughts
Village Farms was in the news last week after announcing a $15M investment from U.S. institutional investors. There was some grousing over where it priced but I added into the pullback the closer it got to $2. This was a $20 stock in ‘21 and the company is on much stronger footing now.
Verano is slated for it’s reverse split tomorrow as it readies for the big board. 8.4M shares printed Tuesday, cleaning up a seller that’s been a longstanding overhang.
^ I’m told there is a GTI print floating around as well.
Chart-wise, Glass House and Trulieve continue to shine as sector leaders begin to pack their bags and check real estate listings on the major exchanges—with most positioning for post ALJ AU uplists.
We’ve got MMJ S3 done, the AU ALJ hearing in less than three weeks, and uplistings; clemencies/ pardons < midterms would ✅✅✅ on promises made, promises kept.
Virginia Gov. Spanberger said she and lawmakers have had “really productive” & “incredible” conversations about a compromise approach to legalizing canna sales that could pass as part of budget legislation this month, per Marijuana Moment.
^ would be great for Verano, Green Thumb, and Jushi.
ATB hosted Curaleaf Chairman & CEO Boris Jordan. Highlights 👇
Questions about whether MMJ interstate commerce and/or export will be allowed. Don’t have guidance yet. Meeting w/ DEA in next couple of weeks, will be able to give update on that quickly.
Believe cannabis companies will likely be included in CMMI program. Hemp will be illegal as of November. In in depth conversations w/ federal regulators about being primary suppliers for 65+ Y/O medical program. Will be run by Optimum and other insurance companies.
Expect A/U rescheduling process to end mid-July. 30 days after that guidance should come out. Expect this to be a positive result.
Expect over next few weeks guidance around tax. In touch with treasury / IRS regarding that. Believe will be a favorable outcome. Don’t want to get into details on it. Will wipe out a very large chunk of UTPs on the balance sheets today.
A lot of activity between now and mid terms.
Believe can uplist the whole business pretty quickly after A/U ruling is published.
Heard from exchanges that they will be lenient on the “over $4”. Now post-reverse split, could move within weeks of mid-August publishing.
Speaking to hedge funds managing $30-100b. They don’t have any restrictions in buying. Some long-only’s have restrictions, but believe you will see most of them lower the barriers to be able to invest into the sector.
Custody issue resolved. JPM just approved. Only waiting on BofA to approve.
Boris has personal rlshps at BofA. Met w/ general counsel recently to clear hurdle.
DEA is an enforcement body. Not a regulatory body. This is the first time the DEA has built a regulatory function. Don’t think they make any moves super fast.
Think export will be an easier decision for them than interstate.
Export would be an incredible positive. No visibility into when this could happen.
First meetings taking place w/ Senior DEA in the next few weeks.
All export (interstate/internationally) will happen. Just a question of when. Will take time for DEA to ramp up regulatory + licensing processes.
Think tax + medical side will be done in a few weeks. Then a few weeks post-A/U rescheduling we could get guidance around credit cards, banking services.
Believe you always want a bill. Guidance from treasury works, but isn’t law. Cole Memo was rescinded. Guidance can be rescinded.
Banking on medical side is a no brainer. Can get banking now. Believe banks will go to regulators for guidance, but don’t believe FINCEN will prevent it.
They want the industry banked, cash within banking system. Think treasury provides good result on banking. Have plenty of time to get banking legislation done, which would then permanently fix the problem.
By this time next year you will see very large scale mergers happen in this industry.
Think we see a reverse trend of US operators buying/forming partnerships w/ CDN operators.
With hemp leaving in November, US is under-invested from a capacity standpoint.
Easier to fight 1 illicit market vs. 2 (hemp + illicit). Will see some growth from hemp flowing back into this year. Will see strong growth next year.
This is the opposite of what CDN had. Think you will see a firming of pricing and growth flow back into the US market.
Until hemp was legalized, cannabis was growing 10-15% a year and winning vs. illicit market. Hemp made growth go flat to down. Once hemp off the shelves, which is happening, seeing organic growth come back.
Government made its bet, want to work with regulated industry vs. hemp industry.
Will see as much as 80% of UTP disappear between now and October.
Consolidation will be the big game.
CURLF wants to maintain leadership position across the industry.
Wish invested today vs. 10 years ago. 🖐️
Feel good about industry going forward.
Think VA gets done. Hopefully over next few weeks.
Don’t think we see A/U in PA this year. Not upset w/ that. Medical markets are good. Continue to grow.
Think FL new governor will get a medical-light approach. Don’t think AU. Think rules open up and bring growth to market. Think allowing out of state medical licensees to buy in FL could happen.
Think we get new states. Excited about Indiana. North and South Carolina
Rescheduling is what the industry needed. Glass ceiling has been broken. 3 years of stagnation. Now think bw hemp, rescheduling, states entering MMJ, etc. Think we see a resurgence in the industry..
Long term plan, cultivation is commoditized, will get spun out or naturally roll off as leases come due. Average life of leases now is around 5 years left. Will see those roll off. Can extend a year or two if needed.
Do intend to move to a model where CURLF is a proper CPG business with retail distribution arm, wholesale arm, and manufacturing arm, but no ag / growing arm. Even retail could eventually be rolled/spun off, focus on manu/branding/wholesale.
ATB after the Curaleaf call
ATB on U.S. cannabis
US cannabis stocks have rallied since June 4, 2026, ignited by news of Trulieve’s reorganization to uplist to the NYSE. The MSOS ETF has gained 13% since, and Trulieve led the charge gaining 32%.
With this positive momentum, investors are asking how much upside is left.
We believe we’re still early and at the beginning of a sector re-rating.
With unprecedented potential catalysts stacking up over the next few months (rescheduling, uplistings, 280E retroactive relief, intoxicating hemp ban), valuations remain attractive as Tier 1s still trade at an average NTMe EV/EBITDA of 6.9x.
We believe this is a compelling window for investors to build or add to positions before the broader market catches up.
Stems & Seeds
Understanding The Therapeutic Effects Of Cannabis On Neurological Disorders
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.
Another ask would be by side coverage initiations. All we need is a smaller by side manager to buy the MSO's and call up their buddies execution shops to start covering. This could be a great set up - we just need price stabilization.
A lot of recent commentary on what institutional are looking for to start buying cannabis stocks. Been in the finance industry for 26 years and 17 years in hedge funds. IMO, they need higher average daily trading volumes and they need to meet certain market cap thresholds. The market cap isn't a problem but ADV is and institutional investors won't trade in and out of a stock unless they know that they could get in and out of a stock. Watch those volumes boys!